But Russia’s preoccupation with the war in Ukraine has left it less focused on Syria, which analysts say has eased the anxieties of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu about showing more support for Ukraine.
It was telling, said Mr. Indyk, a former American ambassador to Israel, that on the weekend of the Wagner rebellion, reports emerged in Jerusalem that Mr. Netanyahu was contemplating a visit to the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
There was far less equivocation in Iran, which is tied to Russia by oil, weapons sales and a kindred sense of global isolation. Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, spoke to Mr. Putin on Monday to offer “his full support,” according to a Kremlin readout of the call. Iran announced that its chief of police, Brig. Gen. Ahmadreza Radan, would travel to Moscow at the invitation of Russian officials to expand security cooperation, including fighting organized crime.
In some ways, a weakened Mr. Putin benefits Iran, Mr. Indyk said, because it makes him more dependent on the drones and missiles Tehran has been funneling to Russia. It also gives Iran a freer hand in Syria, where it has joined with Russia in propping up Mr. al-Assad.
Yet even in Tehran, there were scattered voices calling for a reassessment of the relationship in the wake of Mr. Prigozhin’s mutiny.
“The Wagner story was a warning for Iran,” said Elahe Koolaee, a former lawmaker who is a Russia expert at the University of Tehran. “Instead of relying on the East, Iran needs to start working on strengthening its relations with the West.”
For some countries, like India, there are major economic consequences to recalibrating relations with Russia. Since the war in Ukraine began, India, which remains neutral in the conflict, has emerged as one of the largest buyers of Russian oil, benefiting from a price cap imposed on Russian oil exports by the United States and its allies.
