The scenarios by which McCarthy keeps — or loses — his job as speaker

McCarthy avoids a vote on deposing him

Gaetz’s notice on the House floor that he would seek to depose McCarthy from the speakership started a clock.

The Republican presiding over the House — lawmakers take turns presiding — must bring Gaetz’s “motion to vacate” up for a vote within two legislative days.

But legislative days aren’t calendar days. The Republican presiding over the House — known as the chair — can declare the House in recess at any time in the next two days, extending the legislative day indefinitely and buying McCarthy some time if needs it.

It’s up to the chair to decide when to recognize Gaetz, as long as he or she does so within two legislative days.

Once the chair recognizes Gaetz, he or she will give McCarthy allies the chance to scrap the motion to vacate, likely by offering what’s known as a “motion to table.” If the motion passes by a simple majority (excluding lawmakers who vote “present”), McCarthy’s in the clear.

It’s not clear how many Republicans will vote against a motion to table when the time comes, but Reps. Bob Good (R-Va.) and Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) have said they’ll vote to oust McCarthy. Several other lawmakers have said they’re weighing doing so, and Gaetz said Monday night he has enough votes to bring down McCarthy if every Democrat votes to table the motion.

But some Democrats could vote to rescue McCarthy — especially if he strikes a deal with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) to change the House rules, bring more funding for Ukraine up for a vote or back other Democratic priorities.

McCarthy survives after a scare

If Democrats decline to save McCarthy by voting to table, they still have another shot.

If the motion to table fails, Gaetz will get half an hour to make the case for ousting McCarthy. The speaker’s allies get half an hour, too. Then the House votes.

There are 221 Republicans and 212 Democrats in the House. (Two seats are vacant pending special elections after Reps. Chris Stewart (R-Utah) and David Cicilline (D-R.I.) resigned earlier this year.)

It’s not clear how many lawmakers will be there when the House votes on the motion to vacate — seven lawmakers missed the vote to avert a government shutdown on Saturday and 38 missed the final vote on Monday night — but assume for now that every lawmaker is in attendance.

If a dozen Republicans vote to remove McCarthy from the speakership — Republicans think between seven and 19 will do so, so it’s a reasonable estimate — he would need at least eight Democrats to vote against ousting him to survive.

(This scenario assumes that no lawmakers in either party vote “present.”)

But Democrats could decide to spare themselves — and McCarthy — the indignity of helping him directly by voting “present” instead, allowing McCarthy to claim he hung onto the speakership without any Democratic votes.

If a dozen Republicans vote to remove McCarthy and none vote “present,” he would survive if at least 16 Democrats vote “present” — even if every other Democrat voted against him.

Another way McCarthy could prevail

It’s possible McCarthy’s allies for some reason decide not to introduce a motion to table at all. He could still survive as long as the motion to vacate fails.

Gaetz has said for weeks that a push to topple McCarthy might fail the first time, but he’s vowed to keep bringing motions to vacate until McCarthy is gone.

“What you’ll see when we cast this first vote will be my floor, not my ceiling,” Gaetz told reporters Monday night. “And I think that as we have more votes later, numbers [voting to oust McCarthy] will likely grow.”

If Gaetz succeeds in ousting McCarthy, the House will enter uncharted territory.

When McCarthy was elected speaker, House rules required him to give a secret list of “speakers-in-waiting” — people who would succeed him temporarily if he ever vacated the speakership.

“There’s a little disagreement amongst Hill procedural experts about how much power that temporary Speaker would actually wield,” Sarah Binder, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who’s well versed in congressional procedure, wrote in an email to The Post. “Is their power limited to conducting a new speaker election? What if the election deadlocks without electing a new speaker? Is the House really frozen and unable to do business?”

House Democratic leadership believes that a temporary speaker would only have the power to oversee the election of a new speaker and that no other business could take place in the meantime, according to a Democratic leadership aide.

Another way McCarthy could lose the speakership

It doesn’t matter whether a motion to table fails or if McCarthy’s allies never bring one — if a motion to vacate succeeds, he’s out.

McCarthy suggested Monday night that he was ready for the confrontation.

“Bring it on,” he wrote on X.