National Democrats have, in turn, largely walked away from the state. With Iowa’s Republican elder statesman Sen. Charles E. Grassley on the ballot for his eighth term, his Democratic challenger, Michael Franken, has not received money or support from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. Grassley’s seat is considered so safe that national Republicans also have largely left the race alone.
“I really feel like the national Democratic Party has taken a hands-off approach with Iowa this year, to the point that I think some of us might feel a little neglected or even kind of left out of their conversations,” said Candella Foley-Finchem, a Franken supporter from Glenwood who attended a campaign event in Council Bluffs on Wednesday.
That lack of investment from above might be a blessing in disguise for Franken.
A recent Des Moines Register Iowa Poll from legendary pollster J. Ann Selzer raised eyebrows in Iowa and beyond with results showing Grassley leading Franken among likely voters 46 percent to 43 percent — within the margin of error. The same poll in July had Grassley up by eight points.
Some Iowa Democrats point to Franken’s freedom to run the race he wants, untethered to expectations and directives from the national party and outside consultants, as being key to his success so far. In interviews with The Washington Post, Democrats described an environment in previous elections in which local knowledge was eschewed in favor of money and campaign staffers associated with the national party.
“I’m the first candidate not chosen by Washington, D.C., going back four or five races or more in the Senate race,” Franken said.
In 2020, for example, the Democratic Senate Majority PAC spent more than $41 million supporting Theresa Greenfield, only for her to lose to incumbent Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) by more than six points.
“I think national Democrats kind of got burned on their spending and engagement in Iowa the last few years, and they’ve lost pretty big, I think by making poor choices and getting involved in primary races,” Lindsay Mouw, a former Republican from Sioux Center who worked as Franken’s deputy campaign manager in 2020, said after the Franken event in Council Bluffs.
Republicans, however, say they aren’t worried.
“I laugh at that [poll] because Senator Grassley is well-known across Iowa. He is very well-respected across Iowa,” Ernst told The Post while campaigning for Republican Senate hopeful Joe O’Dea in Colorado. “I know there’s a lot of chatter out there. But Chuck Grassley, he’s gonna take that race.”
Republicans have sought to tie Franken to Biden and portray the retired Navy vice admiral as too extreme for the state, with ads showing him praising Biden for doing a “fabulous job.” Although some voters see Grassley’s age as a liability — he recently turned 89, and Franken is 64 — Republicans stress his experience and seniority in the Senate, with one campaign ad arguing, “It’s easier to fight the rising cost of living when you have clout.”
“We had a lot of Republicans vote for [former Democratic Sen.] Tom Harkin, and believe me, there wasn’t a whole lot of similarities between Tom Harkin and Republicans,” Republican Party of Iowa Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said in an interview. “But a lot of Republicans voted for Harkin because they realized it was good for our state in terms of seniority. You’re gonna see the same thing play out here with Chuck Grassley.”
On the trail and in interviews, Franken insists that his campaign is about the future of the country, but he also harks back to progressive moments in Iowa’s history — such as the state’s trailblazing effort desegregating public schools. He speaks of a time when “introducing yourself as an Iowan immediately typecast you as this forward-thinking, broad-minded, educated, healthy individual,” suggesting Iowa no longer holds such an identity.
The recent Des Moines Register poll showed independent voters, who make up roughly one-third of Iowa’s registered voters, possibly breaking late for Franken. In July, Franken led Grassley by just one percentage point with independents. He leads by eight in the latest poll.
Wayne County resident Mary Ellen Miller is the kind of voter Franken needs if he is to topple Grassley. A former Republican, she says she split from the party in 2016 because of Donald Trump. She said she officially became a Democrat in 2020 to caucus for Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) during the party’s presidential contest. And Miller predicts that Franken will be the “exception” to her new party’s losing streak in the state.
“He’s not running as a Democrat; I think that’s the biggest thing,” she said. “He’s running as an Iowan.”
Lisa Lima, the chair of the Pottawattamie County Democrats, said that as a result of Franken’s posture “there’s a much more homegrown feel to how things are progressing.”
Democrats nationally have routinely cited access to abortion as a top issue for November, and Franken calls it one of the top three issues in the race — alongside education and creating a new, comprehensive immigration plan. He has tied Grassley’s senior position on the Senate Judiciary Committee to the makeup of the current Supreme Court and the resulting decision that overturned Roe v. Wade.
But even if the Democratic Senate campaign arm invested in the race now, three weeks before Election Day, Democrats acknowledge that the race still would be an uphill battle.
Grassley is an Iowa institution, and midterm years historically favor the party not in the White House. Grassley’s closest race was his first, in 1980, which he still won by eight points. Six years ago, he won reelection by more than 20 points.
Grassley has not had to spend much time or money attacking Franken, but Republicans have criticized the Democrat as wanting to make the state more progressive. They have also tried to raise awareness of an allegation by a former staffer who accused Franken of kissing her without her consent. Franken has denied the accusation, and the Des Moines police determined the claim to be “unfounded.”
Above all, Republicans want to paint Franken as a prospective rubber stamp for Biden. Franken told The Post that he would be happy to have Biden campaign for him, and the Republican Party chair couldn’t agree more.
“I think I would even pay for his hotel room if he would come. I would even wear one of those chauffeur hats and drive him around. I want Joe Biden here so badly,” Kaufmann joked. The recent Des Moines Register poll found Biden’s disapproval rating in the state at 61 percent.
Republicans also are quick to point out that a mid-September poll by Selzer in 2020 had Greenfield leading Ernst. And a poll of the Iowa gubernatorial race this month found Democratic challenger Deidre DeJear trailing incumbent Gov. Kim Reynolds by 17 points, indicating that Franken’s standing in polls is not reflective of a larger blue shift in the state.
“We aren’t changing a thing,” Kaufmann said. “From my perspective, from a tactical viewpoint, I guess I just kind of shrug my shoulders.”
“The proof is in the pudding in terms of what we’re doing, and do you see a scramble? Do you see anything different? I’m just not,” he added.
The seniority-longevity battle
Kaufmann also framed Grassley’s seniority as an asset for GOP voters.
“More people ride the New York City subway than live in this state, and we have the opportunity — if the Republicans take control [of the Senate] — we have the opportunity to have the most powerful senator in the entire United States representing our state,” he said. If Republicans win the majority, Grassley will become Senate president pro tempore again, putting him in line for the presidency behind the vice president and the speaker of the House.
Voters who spoke to The Post agreed that much of the decision on whom to support comes down to Grassley’s long service — which makes him an Iowa legend but also means he has a long record with which swing voters can take issue.
Kitty Olsen, a Republican turned Democrat who was a longtime aide to Republican Robert Ray when he was governor, cited the senator’s long service and alignment with Trump as a basis for her decision to stop supporting support Grassley, for whom she said she has previously voted.
“I think he’s a really nice person. I just don’t think he’s effective anymore,” said Olsen, 71.
Bob Mitchell, a human resources consultant in West Des Moines, traced his break with Grassley to his leadership on the Judiciary Committee, calling Grassley’s opposition to considering the Supreme Court vacancy under former president Barack Obama in 2016 “pure politics.”
“I lost all respect for him at that moment,” Mitchell said. Still, he says, he voted for Grassley that November.
This year, Mitchell plans to vote for Franken and even appeared in one of his campaign ads. He said Grassley’s age disturbs him, and he worries that Grassley would not be able to complete the term and that his replacement would be chosen by appointment. (Grassley has said he intends to serve the entire term).
Grassley this year also faced his first primary challenge since his election to the Senate in 1980. State Sen. Jim Carlin, who ran to the right of Grassley, received more than 25 percent of the vote. A Des Moines Register poll conducted last June found 64 percent of respondents said it was time for someone new to hold the office.
Grassley was questioned about the recent Iowa Poll in an interview on Fox News last week, and appeared to nod to at least a small amount of concern about how close the race is.
“I don’t know what’s going on, but I know this: In order to get reelected in Iowa, you got to work hard, you got to convince the people they should vote for you,” Grassley said.
“I’ve gotta have some help to get reelected, and I’d appreciate the help,” he said.
Liz Goodwin contributed to this report.
