Among declared candidates, two other fresh faces have recently spiked in the polls: David Lisnard, the mayor of Cannes, a socially conservative free marketeer with a slick social media profile; and Raphaël Glucksmann, a left-leaning member of the European Parliament, who recently won a primary among candidates on the center left.
What they have in common is that neither worked for Mr. Macron, who, in his waning months in office, is rivaling Mr. Hollande for unpopularity. The three most established center-right candidates — Mr. Philippe, Gabriel Attal and Bruno Retailleau — all served in top jobs in Macron governments. In an election driven by change, analysts say, they are tarnished by that association.
“David Lisnard and Raphaël Glucksmann are not accountable for the past,” said Mr. Lévy, deputy director of the polling firm.
Mr. Lisnard, a onetime journalist who is the son of a professional soccer player, was a vice president of the main right-wing party, the Republicans, and started his own party, New Energy, in 2021. Mr. Glucksmann, a former documentary filmmaker whose father, André Glucksmann, was a famous philosopher, ran for office on a list of Socialist candidates. But he has never been a member of the Socialists, having started his own party, Place Publique, in 2018.
In the most recent poll by Ipsos, Raphaël Glucksmann drew 13 percent, equal to that of Mr. Philippe but behind Mr. Mélenchon, at 17 percent, and Ms. Le Pen, at 33.5 percent. Mr. Lisnard drew 6.5 percent; in other recent polls, he has been as high as 9 percent.
