U.S. inflation remained elevated last month, underscoring the need for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again this year.
Overall prices rose 0.4 percent in October after a 0.6 percent jump in September, according to the latest Consumer Price Index report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. “Core” prices, which strip out volatile food and energy items, rose 0.3 percent.
The agency on Tuesday did not release year-over-year figures for October because it was unable to collect data during last year’s government shutdown. According to calculations by The New York Times, overall prices were around 4 percent higher compared with the same time last year, up from 3.7 percent in September. Over the same period, core prices rose about 2.8 percent.
One of the biggest drivers of inflation in October was food. Prices rose 0.5 percent last month and about 3 percent since the same time last year. That likely reflects a surge in energy prices, especially diesel prices, which have exploded costs for farmers.
Energy prices overall rose modestly in October and were up 0.7 percent for the month after a 5.2 percent jump in September. Gasoline prices rose 1 percent, significantly slower than the 9.1 percent increase during the previous period. Electricity prices rose nearly 1 percent.
October’s C.P.I. report was the last before the Fed meets for its final gathering of the year on Dec. 8-9. Policymakers have signaled that they will raise rates next month as they seek to stamp out price pressures that have pushed inflation further from their goal. While the Fed tracks C.P.I., it officially targets 2 percent inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures index. That level has been overshot for nearly six years.
Fed officials also watch the price of services as an indicator of the underlying pace of inflation. Specifically, they have been looking at core services excluding housing, a measure sometimes referred to as “supercore.” Those prices rose 0.4 percent in October, and have risen at an annual rate of nearly 5.5 percent over the past three months.
On Tuesday, Christopher J. Waller, a Fed governor, raised the prospects of a larger-than-usual half-point interest rate increase at the bank’s meeting in December if inflation did not show signs of moderating.
In remarks delivered at a Bank of England event, Mr. Waller said a quarter-point increase would suffice if price pressures improved. But if “core” inflation rose 0.3 percent or more, as October’s data showed, Mr. Waller warned that the Fed risked its credibility by not moving more aggressively. “Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take,” he said.
Two-year Treasury yields, which are sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations, were up over 0.1 percentage points on Tuesday to 4.67 percent as investors raised wagers that the Fed would raise rates more over time to quell inflation. The labor market remains in solid shape, as October’s report released on Friday showed, affirming that the Fed can focus solely on its inflation problem.
October marked the seventh straight month in which price increases outpaced wage growth on a 12-month basis. Average hourly earnings were up 3.1 percent in October from a year earlier, well below the roughly 4 percent annual inflation pace.
