By other measures, the trade deficit is down a little from the pre-Trump era, but not a lot.
For example, the monthly trade deficit in goods and services has been $69 billion on average in the 17 months since Mr. Trump returned to the White House. That’s down about 6 percent from the monthly average in the 17 months before his second term began.
“For the record, the trade deficit that President Trump vowed to extinguish was $79.8 billion in November 2024 when he was elected for another term, and is still $73.3 billion in today’s figures for June 2026,” said Christopher Rupkey, the chief economist at FWDBONDS LLC. Imports of goods from China had fallen from pre-Trump levels, but risen from Malaysia, Vietnam and Mexico, he said.
Since Mr. Trump took office, imports of some goods have fallen, but demand has been strong for foreign chips needed to fill data centers, medicines and other goods. Many of the products needed for data centers, like expensive foreign chips, have been exempt from tariffs since last April.
The war in Iran has also affected trade in recent months, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz scrambled supply chains for oil fertilizer, product packaging and helium and boosted U.S. exports of petroleum.
The value of U.S. oil exports surged in May, along with the higher price of oil. But in June, the price of oil dipped as the Strait of Hormuz reopened, lowering the value of U.S. oil exports. Since then, fighting has intermittently resumed.
The World Trade Organization said last week that the war’s disruptions were likely to weigh on growth more in the second quarter. Global trade had proved resilient in the first quarter of the year, as a surge in the trade of electronic components needed for artificial intelligence offset some of the drag of the war, it said.
