According to a 2019 study, one-third of the world’s incumbent leaders who reach the end of their constitutional terms try to keep power, a proportion that rises to one-half if the most advanced democracies are not counted. Among 234 incumbents in 106 countries examined, none explicitly ignored their constitutions, but sought to evade limits through supposed loopholes, novel interpretations or constitutional revisions.
Mila Versteeg, a law professor at the University of Virginia and the study’s lead author, said such leaders try to wrap their power grabs in the veneer of legality. “This is such a clear constitutional rule,” she said. “Four plus four is eight, and anyone who can count knows if you’re in year nine, you’re violating the Constitution.”
Some Trump allies have advanced ideas. Stephen K. Bannon, his former chief strategist, has suggested that Mr. Trump should be able to run again because his two terms were not consecutive. The 22nd Amendment makes no allowance for that, but just to be sure, Mr. Goldman introduced a resolution reaffirming that the two-term limit applies whether the terms were consecutive or not.
Others have suggested that Mr. Trump could run and essentially dare the courts or states to remove him from the ballot. The Supreme Court rejected efforts by several states to remove Mr. Trump from the 2024 ballot under a 14th Amendment provision disqualifying insurrectionists from public office. But the term limits in the 22nd Amendment are more clearly defined, and Mr. Trump’s chances of persuading the justices would seem more remote.
At the most extreme are fears that Mr. Trump would simply refuse to leave office, a scenario not dispelled by his replacement of the senior uniformed military leadership. During his bid to overturn his 2020 defeat, some allies urged Mr. Trump to declare martial law and rerun the election in states he lost, advice he did not follow knowing that the military leadership of that moment would not go along.
The United States is a more durable democracy than most, and Ms. Versteeg said she doubts Mr. Trump would succeed at staying in power after Jan. 20, 2029. Still, the desire is strong. “All these guys like their job, and they want to find a way to keep it,” she said. “That’s very, very common.”
