The winner of the Republican primary could end up in a three-way race in 2024, facing off against Sinema, who has not yet said whether she’s running for reelection, and Rep. Ruben Gallego (Ariz.), who is running for the Democratic nomination.
Lamb has developed a higher profile on the right in recent years through frequent appearances on Fox News to decry illegal immigration and offer spirited defenses of Donald Trump, and through the creation of his own reality TV channel offering law enforcement content. He has been criticized for expressing support for private militias and refusing to enforce some laws, including shutdown orders during the coronavirus pandemic.
While the cowboy-hat-wearing sheriff initially questioned and protested the 2020 presidential election results and expressed sympathy for people rioting at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, he has since acknowledged that he saw no evidence of fraud that would have swung the election — a key difference between him and Lake, who is weighing her own run for the Senate seat while pursing a so-far-losing legal challenge making unproved claims of widespread impropriety in the gubernatorial election.
In 2022, Lamb backed Lake and Blake Masters, a venture capitalist, in their failed bids for governor and Senate, respectively. Both candidates, who ran far-right campaigns, have not ruled out running for Sinema’s seat. Lake, a key Trump ally who alienated some of the state’s more moderate Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, would be considered the front-runner in the primary if she enters. She has served as an enthusiastic surrogate for Trump, sparking speculation she is auditioning to be his running mate in 2024.
“If I was a betting man, which I’m not, I’d bet the farm that Kari Lake ends up running for Senate,” Lake senior adviser Colton Duncan said in a statement. “I’m 99 percent sure she’ll run, and if she does, I’m 100 percent certain she will win. However, right now Kari is entirely dedicated to her legal battle.”
The three would be fighting for precious real estate in the far-right lane of the GOP primary. Karrin Taylor Robson, a developer who lost to Lake in the 2022 primary as a more moderate candidate, and businessman Jim Lamon have also not publicly ruled out runs. A representative for Taylor Robson, who met with the National Republican Senatorial Committee last month, told The Washington Post on Monday she is still considering jumping into the race.
Lamb will probably tout his law enforcement experience and focus on the U.S.-Mexico border to distinguish himself from his rivals in a state where GOP primary voters count immigration and border security as top issues.
“He’s an imposing figure, especially in his sheriff’s uniform and cowboy hat,” said Barrett Marson, a GOP strategist in Arizona who counts the Arizona Sheriffs’ Association as a client. “He has walked the walk and talked the talk on border security and fighting crime, and that is what differentiates him from anyone else in the potential field.”
Lake and others may attack Lamb for “hypocrisy” on allying with Trump’s “Stop the Steal” movement but more recently conceding he did not see evidence of widespread fraud, according to another Lake adviser who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations. Many Arizona Republicans still think there was fraud.
A spokeswoman for Lamb did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the sheriff’s expected announcement.
